Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes prediction, pick: Will the all-grappler UFC 303 co-main become a slugfest?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 303 co-main event between Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes, which came together on just two weeksâ notice.
Brian Ortega UFC 303 preview
Staple info:
Height: 5â8âł Age: 33 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 69âł
Last fight:Â Submission win over Yair Rodriguez(Feb. 24, 2024)
Camp: Team Ortega (California)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ RFA featherweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 3 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Serviceable feints and footwork
+ Improved shot selection
+ Tricky inside the clinch
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Superb submission chains
+ Dangerous guard game
^ Active hips and deceptive strikes
+/- 0-1 in MMA rematches (3-3 in kickboxing rematches)
Diego Lopes UFC 303 preview
Apr 12, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; UFC fighter Diego Lopes during ceremonial weigh ins for UFC 300 at MGM Grand Garden Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Staple info:
Height: 5â11â Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 72.5âł
Last fight: TKO win over Sodiq Yusuff (April 13, 2024)
Camp: Lobo Gym MMA (Mexico)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 10 KO victories
+ 12 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing ability
+ Hard calf kicks
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Dynamic submission game
+ Dangerous off of back
^ Works from high-to-low
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes point of interest: Striking on short notice
The co-main event for UFC 303 features an impromptu fight at 155 pounds between two men who usually compete at featherweight.
Not one to say no to a scrap, Lopes has proven that he is down to step up in multiple ways.
Stepping up his striking skills in recent years, Lopes shows some natural pop in his punches and kicks. Doing a bit better at staying over his feet, Lopes has made measurable strides since his early days of being a jiu-jitsu brawler.
Although Lopesâ aggressive instincts are still clearly intact, the 29-year-old Brazilian displays some solid straight punches that serve him well when coming forward and countering kicks. Whenever matched with a fellow orthodox opposition, Lopes will unleash crashing calf kicks often set up by his lead hand.
Lopes can also strike potently off of collar ties, but will need to be careful when closing in on Ortega.
Despite being known for his opportunistic submission game, Ortega has continually shown to make steady strides in his striking. Consistently keeping light on his toes, the 14-year pro stays ready to throw or move with his opposition, steadily setting the temperature to apply his approach.
Working behind a healthy dose of feints, Ortega will flick out jabs from either stance, almost like a flint lighter for the fires that he is attempting to start. Once Ortega gets going, he puts his punches together nicely, variating well to the body while punctuating his presence with accurate uppercuts and knees.
In his last slew of fights, Ortega has leaned much more on his southpaw stance for out-fighting and countering approaches. Against Chan Sung Jung, Ortega largely used his lead side to prod and check, smartly picking his spots to land power shots from his left side throughout the contest.
Still, despite adding useful tools like spinning or checking elbows, defense has not exactly been Ortegaâs strong suit.
Aug 5, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Diego Lopes (red gloves) fights Gavin Tucker (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Considering the grappling prowess of both parties, no one should be shocked if these two tangle on the floor this weekend.
By now, the secret has long been out on the grappling phenom from the Gracie Torrance Academy. As we saw in Ortegaâs first few fights under the UFC banner, his transitional grappling was already at a very high level, displaying a deceptive process to his jiu-jitsu prowess.
Not afraid to fight from his back, Ortega has little issue in succeeding position off of failed takedown attempts or even going for high-risk attacks. Should his opponents follow the Gracie black belt to the floor, they often find themselves defending everything from sweep attempts to elbow strikes.
Bearing a submission game that can make you feel like youâre fighting a mythological Hydra, Ortega can turn calm waters into sea storms in a flash.
Once inside Ortegaâs grasp, the Gracie fighter immediately goes to work by giving his opposition multiple problems to deal with while chaining from submission to submission, even altering positional terms when applicable. In Ortegaâs last few fights opposite elite strikers, we saw him get after grappling opportunities a lot more than usual, but Iâm not so sure that trend continues here.
Grappling since the age of five, Lopes is a lifelong martial artist who moves on the floor like second nature.
An absolute nightmare in transitions, Lopes flows through the position and submission index faster than any bogus AI program could replicate. Whether combining armbar and triangle threats or snatching up legs on an exit, Lopes is great about keeping a high-to-low theme to his attacks.
In more recent stretches of his career, Lopes appears to have made a real effort to shore up his wrestling, both defensively and offensively.
Not only does Lopes have things like clinch trips or reactive shots in his back pocket, but the Brazilianâs ability to defend and dictate action from the clinch will come in handy the higher he climbs in this division.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds
Despite the oddsmakers opening the former title challenger as the favorite, public money has completely flipped the line, listing Lopes at -150 and Ortega +118 via FanDuel.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes prediction, pick
Even though I understand the swing in the odds, itâs hard to deny the perceived value of Ortega as an underdog in this spot.
Aside from the fact that Ortega is the more proven product at the UFC level, âT-Cityâ has shown that he can steal victory from the jaws of defeat late into fights.
Whereas Lopes, though bearing some deceptive experience of his own, has typically not faired as well when fights go long. But with this fight only being three frames with volatile short-notice intangibles in tow, itâs hard to be confident about anything when it comes to the conditioning or health of these fighters.
For that reason, Iâll be leaning more heavily into my stylistic reads here. In that department, Lopes checks off more of the boxes.
Whether weâre talking about Ortegaâs propensity to eat straight shots or have his kicks countered, Lopesâ speed and savvy should give him a slight edge standing from the jump.
As far as the grappling goes, Lopesâ offensive patterns from takedowns to passes run him away from the strong side of Ortega (e.g. Ortega likes to choke with his left side while Lopes traditionally sags his head off to his opponentâs right). When Lopes is on his back, he almost always targets his oppositionâs right arm â the same side Ortega injured when trying to defend an armbar attempt from Yair Rodriguez.
Itâs a tricky fight to forecast regardless of who you like, but I believe Lopes is the more durable and dangerous fighter at this point in their careers.
Iâll pick Lopes to force a stoppage by strikes in round 2.
Prediction:Â Lopes inside the distance
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes start time, where to watch
Ortega and Lopes are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. locally in Las Vegas). The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
News
âFireworks In Decemberâ- Ian Garry Challenges Unbeaten Rakhmonov For Year-End Showdown
âFireworks In Decemberâ- Ian Garry Challenges Unbeaten Rakhmonov For Year-End Showdown Ian Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov Confidence is an essential tool in a fighterâs arsenal. And when it comes to confidence, Ian Garry has it in spades. The Irish welterweight…
What Is Conor McGregorâs New Record Label Business? All About Greenback Records
What Is Conor McGregorâs New Record Label Business? All About Greenback Records Conor McGregor has expanded his business ventures by launching a music label in his homeland. The 36-year-old is taking on a new challenge in the music industry, making…
Jake Paul stops Mike Perry by sixth-round TKO, calls out UFC champ Alex Pereira
Jake Paul stops Mike Perry by sixth-round TKO, calls out UFC champ Alex Pereira Jake Paul continues to put a beating on MMA guys. The latest victim was also a bareknuckle guy, as Mike Perry was stopped by Paul in Round 6 of…
Conor McGregor goes off on âpissbagâ Jake Paul, tells Mike Perry âyouâre firedâ from BKFC
Conor McGregor goes off on âpissbagâ Jake Paul, tells Mike Perry âyouâre firedâ from BKFC If there was ever a case of a combat sports boss throwing a tantrum on social media, it came from Conor McGregor on Saturday night. After Jake Paul defeated Mike…
Conor McGregor Begins Irelandâs First Major Record Label As UFC Star Enters Music Business â âGreenback Recordsâ
Conor McGregor Begins Irelandâs First Major Record Label As UFC Star Enters Music Business â âGreenback Recordsâ Conor McGregor One thing about Conor McGregor is that he knows how to secure his bank balance. From the whiskey business to fighting…
Alex Pereiraâs Toughest Opponent In Kickboxing Set To Make Debut On Dana White Contender Series
Alex Pereiraâs Toughest Opponent In Kickboxing Set To Make Debut On Dana White Contender Series Alex Pereira The UFC is a hub for elite Mixed Martial Arts (MMA). As such, fighters from various disciplines come to test their mettle. But…
End of content
No more pages to load